In Hammer of Math, we look at statistics and math-related problems in Warhammer 40k, talking about how they affect games and how you can use them to your advantage. Today we’re talking about rule changes and various odds and ends in the Q3 Balance Update.
Games Workshop dropped its Q3 balance update recently, and if you missed our review of it, you can find that here. A number of things changed in the update, and several of them create interesting new opportunities for comparison and math. We’re not going to go into Challenger Cards, as them being gone means we no longer have to consider the math behind them, but we’ll look at various changes to the game’s different factions.
Genestealer Cults: How Much Are Resurgence Points Worth?
A major change made in the dataslate last year, Genestealer Cults armies now have Resurgence Points, which are spent to return destroyed models to the battlefield. In a Strike Force game, GSC players start with 10 Resurgence Points and can spend them over the course of a game. These tend to more or less align with the point costs of the units they apply to, with one resurgence point being worth, on average, 31 points. Note that this means that, on average, Genestealer Cults players will be playing with something more like 2,300 points’ worth of models from their Codex.
That said, not all units are created equal when it comes to Resurgence Points, and if we look at the RP cost vs. Points costs of specific units, we can see this at work. When it comes getting the most out of your Resurgence Points, large units of Aberrants, 5-model units of Purestrain Genestealers and 5-model units of Atlan Jackals provide the most bang for your buck. Jackals are particularly good in this regard, netting you a whopping 42.5 points per Resurgence Point spent. The worst value? ten-mane units of Neophyte Hybrids.
This also means that when you play the Xenocreed Congregation, you should always take the “Deeds That Speak to the Masses” Enhancement, as it essentially costs -35 points.
Genestealer Cults: Primus Benefits Reduction
The other major rules change to the Genestealer Cults was on the Primus’ Cult Demagogue ability, which went from giving his unit full re-rolls to hit to only giving them +1 to hit. That’s a downgrade in almost every sense but how bad is it? Let’s dig into how this changes things. First, it’s worth noting that if you’re playing with a Primus, it’s often in the Host of Ascension Detachment, where units arriving from Reserves get [SUSTAINED HITS 1] and [IGNORES COVER] until the end of your next Fight phase.
On a 20-model unit of Neophyte Hybrids with Hybrid Weapons, that’ll give you 40 shots at half range thanks to [RAPID FIRE], of which you can expect 30 hits with 4+ to hit and full re-rolls vs. 26.7 hits with 3+ to hit instead. That’s a difference of about 3.4 hits on average, or about a 9% drop in efficiency. And no, if you don’t have a 2+ to hit, it’s generally not worth it to fish for critical hits.
I say “generally” because there are some ways to modify this problem. For one, the Primus can have the A Chink in Their Armour Enhancement, which gives his units [LETHAL HITS]. In that case, re-roll hits becomes even better when you are going into targets against which you’ll be rolling 6s to wound – this is the only time you want to fish for critical hits as otherwise you’ll get more value out of just taking the hits you get. The difference becomes more stark when you can improve your ability to score Critical Hits with the Primed and Readied Stratagem. That’s where you’re going to feel it most, and your output there is going to drop by about one third (33%). This can be a huge problem if your units were just barely killing a key target before. But on regular volleys unassisted by Stratagems and Enhancements, you may not notice much.
Chaos Knights: Infernal Lance Changes
The big change to the Infernal Lance Detachment has you choosing between a 5+ invulnerable save and a Feel No Pain 6+ for a single phase of attacks. These are generally not equivalent abilities, and obviously in the Shooting phase you’ll be opting for the 6+ Feel No Pain since you’ll already have the Knight’s built-in 5+ invulnerable save. But if an opponent is dropping high AP attacks on you in melee, which one do you choose?
Well, it depends on a few factors. The first is whether you’ll still have a save. You need an incoming attack with AP-3 or better before the odds swing in favor of the Feel No Pain, and even after that, the damage value matters as well – against 2+ damage attacks, you’ll generally want the invulnerable save. And while a 6+ armor save and a 6+ feel no pain give you functionally the same expected value, 6+ armor saves are all-or-nothing, while you’re more likely to take some damage rolling a 6+ feel no pain, so your mileage may vary there – if you’ve got six wounds left, then your odds are going to feel better with the 6+ feel no pain, where you have six changes to save your Knight instead of one. That said, the 6+ save is re-rollable, while the feel no pain isn’t.
Emperor’s Children: Flawless Blade Attacks
Flawless Blades in the Emperor’s Children gained an additional attack on their melee weapon profiles. We’ve covered them before – their Daemonic Patrons ability to always wound a target on 3+ helps them really punch up into bigger targets, and they’re one of the lone units in the Emperor’s Children army with access to AP-3 weapons – something not even Daemon Princes and Maulerfiends can boast on their primary melee weapons. On average, three Flawless Blades go from killing 4.2 marines to 5.6, and a full unit of six will go from killing 8.3 to 11.1. Add in SUSTAINED HITS 1 and you’ll up that to 13.3.
Against Terminators things aren’t so great, but a unit of six will at least be likely to kill four terminators now, and your chances of killing a Rhino with three models shot way up, to where three models invoking the patron are likely to do just over 11 damage to a Rhino, meaning you don’t need a full size unit to reliably kill one. Armigers and War Dogs on the hand, with their additional wounds, are likely to survive your three model assault and require an additional model or two to bring down.
T’au Empire: Riptide Ion Accelerators
One welcome new change for T’au players was the upgrade to the Ion Accelerator gun option on the Riptide battlesuit. The change takes them from a S7/S8 profile – depending on whether you supercharged – to a S9/S10 profile, keeping the other stats even. This is a huge boost for the army, as T’au have a surprising lack of S10+ guns in their arsenal when it comes to the units they’re likely to run.
What this really does is give players an actual use for the Ion Accelerator. Previously the heavy burst cannon had more or less the same expected output as the Accelerator into vehicle targets as the standard charge Ion Accelerator – 2.7 wounds into a Rhino, and into targets with T6 or less, where the higher volume of shots made up for the lower AP, damage, and strength. That would improve slightly with the Supercharged mode, but come with the risk of taking mortal wounds from the [HAZARDOUS]Â rule. At S9/10, the Ion Accelerator becomes much better at killing heavy infantry and vehicle targets, and on average will do 4 expected damage to a Rhino in standard mode and 6.7 when supercharged. That’s still not amazing, and you’ll need help from the other guns and a Detachment rule if you want to get over the top.
- Adding 1 AP from Retaliation Cadre will change your expected output against a Rhino to 5/10.7 damage
- Adding [SUSTAINED HITS 1] from Kauyon changes your output to around 5/10 damage
- Adding [LETHAL HITS] from Mont’ka also changes your output to 5/10 damage
In the case of that Mont’ka benefit, adding [LETHAL HITS] to the heavy burst cannon gives it an expected output of 4 damage into a Rhino.
Thousand Sons: Ritual Changes
The big change for Thousand Sons is that a Ritual can now only be attempted once each turn, instead of manifested. This means you’ll need to think more carefully about when and how you apply your bonuses to manifest, and apply the additional D6 via Channeling the Warp if you need to achieve a result. We’ve already covered the odds of casting with each bonus in a previous Hammer of Math, but you can find the chart again reproduced below.
Note that you only get the +1 bonus from the Mutalith Vortex Beast when you are Channeling the Warp, i.e. rolling 3 dice. This means that unless something changes, your highest bonus at 2D6 will be +2 from Magnus the Red’s attempts. When it comes to perils well, your odds rolling doubles on 2D6 are 17%, and 44% on 3D6, and when you roll that third die you’ll already know if you rolled doubles initially. On average this will mean taking 2 mortal wounds.
World Eaters: Exalted Eightbound and Slaughterbound
In a similar fashion to Flawless Blades, the Exalted Eightbound in World Eaters saw a boost, and now they get +1 damage against MONSTER or VEHICLE targets instead of forcing Desperate Escape tests. This is much more broadly useful – previously a unit of three Exalted Eightbound would do only 8.9 damage to a Rhino, or 11.1 if they were charging that turn in the Berzerker Warband Detachment. With the extra damage that jumps to 13.3/16.7, making the Rhino kill much more likely, and forcing the Rhino to pass 3 of its 6+ saves instead of 2. This also means that they can effectively take down Armigers with the improved wound counts and will generally punch into T9/T10 targets much more effectively.
Note that this damage bonus applies to the unit, so if you’ve attached a Slaughterbound to them, he will also get the bonus when attacking a MONSTER or VEHICLE unit. On that note, the Slaughterbound also saw an upgrade, going to S10 with his melee weapons – meaning that in a Berzerker Warband he’ll be striking at S12 on the charge, making him able to punch into many vehicle targets much more effectively. Against a T10 target he’ll now do 3.3 damage on average without buffs or 5.2 on the charge, and that ups to 5/7.8 when he’s paired with a unit of Exalted Eightbound. Pair the two units together and charge a T11 knight and your expected output is about 20 damage before you factor in any buffs. Sustained Hits 1 bumps that to 23.5, while Lethal Hits will bump it to 25.9 and having both together will just about get you to the hump of felling a big knight. That said you’ll likely want to chip that big knight down with some shots from a Forgefiend or activate the Slaughterbound’s once-per-game [DEVASTATING WOUNDS] ability to make sure it’s a done deal.
Final Thoughts
That wraps up this week’s check-in, and we’ve covered most of the key changes to units. But if there’s anything we missed or anything you’d like us to take a look at in future articles, shoot me a note in Discord or via email.
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