Hammer of Math: Predicting the 2025 World Championships of Warhammer

In Hammer of Math we look at statistics and probability in Warhammer. This week, we’re looking at the lineup for the World Championships of Warhammer happening this week and trying to predict a winner!

Welcome! Jeremy “Curie” Atkinson here from Stat Check and I’m back this year with some bonus World Championships of Warhammer stats coverage. In this article, we’re going to be reviewing how the event is going to work, the expected winners of each group, the expected faction performance, and finally who we think is going to perform the best with their respective faction and who will take it all!

Event Overview and Structure

The World Championships of Warhammer for Warhammer 40k is split into two stages, which have three separate components: First is the group stage, followed by the concurrently-run “World” and “Champs” brackets. These are played over the course of four days, with two games played per day.

The first stage of the event consists of 16 groups of 24 to 26 players (totaling 411 registered attendees in total) who will play through four rounds of Swiss with the winner of each group advancing onwards to the Championship bracket. This year each group has more than 16 players, and as a result there is a very high probability that there will be more than 1 player with a 4-0 record within each group, necessitating a “shadow” round on the Friday evening to determine the winner of the group.

The second stage has two components: The championship bracket, where the winner of each group will then play a further four rounds of Swiss, resulting in a single player who wins the entire event (note that draws are not permitted in this stage and they have a system for draws), and the rest that will fall between 2nd and 16th places. The remaining players who did not win their respective groups will then also play four games of swiss, with the pairings continuing based on their record at that point.

Note that while winning it all comes with the most accolades, there are multiple other awards to win, including finishing 4-0 in the world stage, winning best in faction (which is determined by the best record for a player within a faction by Wins -> OGW% -> Battle Points), Best Overall, Best Painted, and many others. As this is the World Championships of Warhammer, each player can also contribute to their nation’s score to determine where in the national rankings their country finishes.

Pictured: Two brave competitors stay late at the 2024 World Championships to determine which among them is the superior player. Spoiler: It’s Scott

The Elo-phant in the Room

This article is based entirely on the Elo system we here at Stat Check have developed over the last three-and-a-half years, which tracks (nearly) all games at Warhammer 40k events with 24+ players and a minimum of 5 rounds (referred from here on out as GT+ games). Elo is one tool in predicting outcomes, and while we’ve covered how well it can predict outcomes https://www.goonhammer.com/from-theory-to-tabletop-the-accuracy-of-elo-predictions-in-warhammer-40ks-las-vegas-open-2024/ , one of the restrictions is that it requires a fair amount of data before it starts to accurately represent the skill of the players involved. Similar to last year, we have extensive data on the majority of attendees, lacking GT+ information on only 13 of the 411 registrants (including two Canadians who have only played in Teams events and not any GT+ events in our tracking time). Of the players we do have data for, the average player has played 79 GT+ games and has a 69% game win rate. This gives us a fairly high confidence level in the players we do have ratings for.

The Simulation

For the rest of this article, we’re going to be going through the results of an attempt to simulate and predict the outcome of the overall tournament. We’ve taken each group, randomly generated pairings for each round, and then used the expected winner based on the Elo difference between each player against a random number generator to predict the outcome (E is the expected chance to win for player A of Elo RA vs player B of Elo RB).

{\displaystyle E_{\mathsf {A}}={\frac {1}{1+10^{(R_{\mathsf {B}}-R_{\mathsf {A}})/400}}}~.}

We then ran the tournament to conclusion using the pairing process provided in the player packet – which was done by Wins, Path to Victory, and then Random within that bracket while trying to avoid same country pairings. We then seeded the championship bracket with the winner of each group, ran the championship/world brackets, and repeated all of this 10,000 times to get to our resultant.

Now let’s go through the groups that have been assigned.

The Group Stage

The 40k group stage of the event has been broken down into 16 groups of 24 to 26 players, distributed as evenly as possible between the countries in attendance. Below we can see each of the groups, with their average Elo ranking, the player who is favoured to win the group, and their respective country & faction. The final column gives us the chance that this particular player will win their group.

GroupPlayer CountAverage EloFavouriteCountryFactionEloChance to Win Group
1261712Liam VslBelgiumAeldari202127.4%
2261667Matthew McCurdyEnglandSpace Wolves183715.1%
3261678Jack MurphyUnited StatesAdeptus Mechanicus191922.8%
4261661Justin MooreUnited StatesAdeptus Mechanicus196226.9%
5261661Evan StumpUnited StatesSpace Marines191124.4%
6261703Wesley St. HinesUnited StatesAstra Militarum210137.5%
7261668John HolbrookUnited StatesOrks191426.6%
8261668Folger PylesUnited StatesAeldari207553.3%
9261645Dan SammonsUnited StatesAdeptus Mechanicus204047.4%
10261707Andy Quas-CohenEnglandNecrons201127.9%
11261689Jeffrey KolodnerUnited StatesAdepta Sororitas203029.7%
12261730Conan JenningsUnited StatesSpace Marines204838.1%
13261662Innes WilsonScotlandChaos Space Marines207551.8%
14251687Samuel PopeUnited StatesTyranids201433.2%
15241675Michael MannUnited StatesSpace Wolves193723.5%
16241688Brian DaughertyUnited StatesWorld Eaters198627.0%

The first thing to note is that the highest Elo rank player in each group is expected to win their group, but several of the groups are actually quite close in terms of expected winner. As an example Group 1 has  The other interesting thing here is that while Americans make up just under 39% of the playing field, they are predicted to win 12 of the 16 groups! Last year we saw a similar expected result, due to the pairing system avoiding same country pairings until absolutely necessary (so with an increase in American representation this effect is magnified), and was somewhat attributed to the American players having the third highest average Elo of all countries in attendance. Americans are the 5th-highest average Elo countries when you exclude single-representative countries (sorry, Scotland!), passed by Germany, Belgium, Spain, and England.

The table that follows summarizes each country’s representation at the event, the average number of their players that make the champions bracket, and finally the chance of a player from that country winning the event.

Country# Players% Rep# in Top 16Chance to WinAverage Elo
Scotland10.2%0.528.6%2075
Portugal10.2%0.110.3%1854
Germany92.2%0.571.8%1806
Belgium41.0%0.393.5%1795
Spain102.4%0.581.8%1776
Nigeria10.2%0.020.0%1768
England112.7%1.006.7%1767
Ireland10.2%0.020.0%1737
United States16038.9%9.6571.3%1731
Sweden92.2%0.401.1%1729
Norway61.5%0.150.2%1721
Denmark20.5%0.020.0%1711
United Kingdom10.2%0.010.0%1698
Iceland10.2%0.020.0%1694
Czech Republic51.2%0.160.3%1675
Finland51.2%0.080.1%1674
The Netherlands10.2%0.010.0%1672
Vietnam20.5%0.030.0%1668
Hungary10.2%0.010.0%1665
France286.8%0.480.7%1661
Canada6916.8%1.283.1%1642
Philippines20.5%0.010.0%1626
China41.0%0.070.0%1608
Venezuela10.2%0.000.0%1605
Italy112.7%0.120.1%1599
Mexico204.9%0.190.3%1596
Colombia41.0%0.010.0%1569
Chile30.7%0.010.0%1563
Japan10.2%0.000.0%1563
Switzerland41.0%0.010.0%1560
Australia122.9%0.030.0%1558
Singapore20.5%0.000.0%1550
Luxembourg10.2%0.000.0%1550
Andorra30.7%0.010.0%1534
Brazil20.5%0.000.0%1530
Thailand30.7%0.000.0%1524
Slovenia10.2%0.000.0%1521
Bolivia30.7%0.000.0%1500
Malaysia30.7%0.000.0%1500
Republic of Korea20.5%0.000.0%1500
Uruguay10.2%0.000.0%1490

We’ve hinted at the predicted event winners, but let’s look at faction performance first.

Faction Performance by Player

For faction performance, we focused on what would be required for a player to achieve Best in Faction (BiF) for their particular faction – which is by Wins, Opponent Game Win % (OGW%), and Points (battle points were randomly generated based on a win/loss so they’re fairly arbitrary here). Several places have already covered the faction distribution at this event, and you can watch this space later this week for some breakdowns of the most popular factions.

Faction# Players% RepMax WinsMax OGW%# in TopBiF PredictionCountry
Adepta Sororitas163.9%6.5060.2%1Treynor WolfeUnited States
Adeptus Custodes112.7%4.5151.9%0Thomas CosgroveCanada
Adeptus Mechanicus286.8%6.7460.7%3Kjetil Andre LiknesNorway
Aeldari358.5%6.9661.8%2Liam VslBelgium
Astra Militarum122.9%6.8961.9%1Fabiano MarianiItaly
Black Templars122.9%5.4956.2%0Jerry ZhangChina
Blood Angels133.2%5.4155.8%0Hugo RichiardiFrance
Chaos Daemons133.2%5.7157.3%0Igor BourjacFrance
Chaos Knights122.9%6.0258.0%0Ratnu VaidyaEngland
Chaos Space Marines163.9%6.9461.7%1Sebastian HebertCanada
Dark Angels92.2%5.2655.1%0Jesper Unander-ScharinSweden
Death Guard235.6%6.4360.0%0Gary HaydenUnited States
Deathwatch41.0%4.7852.9%0Yann TRANBelgium
Drukhari122.9%5.6557.6%0Ridvan MartinezCanada
Emperor's Children92.2%6.3559.7%0Brian CrothersCanada
Genestealer Cults122.9%5.1555.0%0John IndellicateUnited States
Grey Knights81.9%5.0954.7%0Riccardo GhioItaly
Imperial Knights215.1%5.5156.6%0Brian JonesUnited States
Leagues of Votann122.9%5.8757.9%0Mathieu ClercBelgium
Necrons194.6%6.3460.0%1Max BerloveUnited States
Orks143.4%5.8957.8%1Jordan SalamonCanada
Space Marines327.8%6.6161.5%2Xavier BarreraMexico
Space Wolves102.4%5.9058.0%2Nick McClaebUnited States
T'au Empire163.9%5.8657.9%0Durante BozziniUnited States
Thousand Sons71.7%5.5356.8%0Mike MuzeniUnited States
Tyranids112.7%6.3760.0%1kyle lamperezUnited States
World Eaters245.8%6.2159.3%1David DeLisleUnited States

Event Favourites

Now let’s talk about the event favourites – and similarly to last year with the calibre of talent on display at the event, there is no clear winner to project here. There are many very familiar names in the top ten, with the three most likely winners likely to be Wesley St. Hines (fresh off of his win at LVO XII), returning WCW champion Folger Pyles, and defending ITC champ Innes Wilson all showing strong odds to win. Right now defending champion Folger Pyles is the favorite to repeat.

Player% to WinCountryFactionElo
Folger Pyles9.24%United StatesAeldari2075
Wesley St. Hines8.85%United StatesAstra Militarum2101
Innes Wilson8.64%ScotlandChaos Space Marines2075
Dan Sammons6.14%United StatesAdeptus Mechanicus2040
Conan Jennings5.85%United StatesSpace Marines2048
Jeffrey Kolodner4.52%United StatesAdepta Sororitas2030
Samuel Pope3.73%United StatesTyranids2014
Derek Apsche3.54%United StatesDeath Guard2030
Liam Vsl3.40%BelgiumAeldari2021
Andy Quas-Cohen3.30%EnglandNecrons2011

One interesting thing to note is this year some of the groups are more “determined” than last year, i.e. Folger Pyles and Innes Wilson both have above 50% odds of winning their respective groups – a significantly higher chance than last year, where the biggest favourites only had about a 1 in 3 projected chance of advancing. That means that the odds to win this year for the top players are considerably higher when you start stacking on those chances – last year the field favourite was Tim Schneider at 6.14% to win, but this year’s favourite is Folger Pyles at 9.24% – nearly 1 in 10! Vegas would love those odds…

The Full Results

As with last year, here are the full results to see how your fellow patriots will perform – any surprises? Similar to last year the Average Placing column may lead to some questions, but as there are no guaranteed group stage winners, the average placing gets pushed down below the top 16.

PlayerGroupCountryEloFaction% to Win% Top CutWLOGW%PtsAvg Placing
Liam Vsl1Belgium1979Aeldari3.40%27%6.41.960%64844
Max Berlove1United States1952Necrons1.24%15%5.92.358%62767
Durante Bozzini1United States1946T'au Empire1.12%14%5.92.358%62668
Ridvan Martinez1Canada1924Drukhari0.75%11%5.72.558%61778
Xavier Barrera1Mexico1868Space Marines0.20%7%5.32.856%604100
Ratnu Vaidya1England1853Chaos Knights0.15%6%5.22.955%600108
kyle lamperez1United States1851Tyranids0.27%5%5.22.955%600109
Jesper Unander-Scharin1Sweden1808Dark Angels0.08%4%4.93.254%589131
Brian Jones1United States1756Imperial Knights0.01%2%4.53.552%576162
Kjetil Andre Liknes1Norway1758Adeptus Mechanicus0.04%2%4.53.552%576160
Igor Bourjac1France1747Chaos Daemons0.02%1%4.43.652%573168
Devin Orchard1United States1705Necrons0.00%1%4.13.951%564193
Riccardo Ghio1Italy1707Grey Knights0.02%1%4.23.951%564191
Jeffrey Colpitts1United States1709Chaos Daemons0.01%1%4.23.951%564192
Thomas Cosgrove1Canada1686Adeptus Custodes0.00%1%3.94.150%557210
Hugo Richiardi1France1633Blood Angels0.00%0%3.64.449%546237
Sebastian Hebert1Canada1650Chaos Space Marines0.01%0%3.74.349%549231
Gary Hayden1United States1627Death Guard0.00%0%3.54.548%544243
Jerry Zhang1China1587Black Templars0.00%0%3.24.847%534269
Orion Lasater1United States1609Imperial Knights0.00%0%3.44.648%540254
Nick McClaeb1United States1585Space Wolves0.00%0%3.24.847%534269
Dadu Polo1Andorra1516Aeldari0.00%0%2.75.345%517309
jonathan savoie1Canada1508Aeldari0.00%0%2.65.345%514313
Diego Hinojosa1Bolivia1500Chaos Daemons0.00%0%2.65.445%514317
Thomas Godfrey1Canada1512Chaos Space Marines0.00%0%2.65.345%514313
Travis Kroells1United States1492Adeptus Custodes0.00%0%2.55.444%512320
Matthew McCurdy2England1837Space Wolves0.33%15%5.32.955%608102
Justin Serrano2United States1813Chaos Daemons0.19%11%5.13.054%599117
Treynor Wolfe2United States1797Adepta Sororitas0.12%10%5.03.154%596124
David Anderson2United States1771Black Templars0.11%8%4.83.353%589138
John Indellicate2United States1760Genestealer Cults0.06%7%4.73.453%586147
Gabriel Nixon2United States1760Adeptus Mechanicus0.07%7%4.73.452%584148
Dag Samuelsson2Sweden1751Adepta Sororitas0.04%6%4.63.452%582153
Ranchen Li2China1747Drukhari0.01%6%4.63.552%581155
Nick Nanavati2United States1719Aeldari0.04%4%4.43.751%572174
Luke Rolph2United States1721T'au Empire0.04%4%4.43.751%574172
Sebastien Geoffrion2Canada1729Tyranids0.02%4%4.43.752%573172
David DeLisle2United States1697World Eaters0.01%3%4.23.850%567188
Sveinung Noding2Norway1689Aeldari0.00%3%4.13.950%564196
Yann TRAN2Belgium1660Deathwatch0.01%2%3.94.149%557215
Daniele De Gemini2Italy1649T'au Empire0.01%2%3.84.249%554222
Garrett Moore2United States1646Space Wolves0.00%2%3.84.249%553223
Nick Keever2United States1652Chaos Space Marines0.01%2%3.94.249%555218
Maxime Zimmer2France1623Aeldari0.01%1%3.64.448%547239
Jordan Salamon2Canada1611Orks0.00%1%3.44.648%541252
Julien Caldari2France1585Adeptus Custodes0.00%1%3.34.747%537263
Sid Secter2Canada1558T'au Empire0.00%0%3.14.946%529284
Erin Brandson2Canada1531Blood Angels0.00%0%2.85.145%521299
Jaime Cruz2Mexico1519Grey Knights0.00%0%2.85.245%521303
Tora Shas'O2Andorra1519Necrons0.00%0%2.85.245%520303
Robert Musty2Canada1500Death Guard0.00%0%2.65.445%514315
Raphael Loza2Bolivia1500Orks0.00%0%2.65.344%516314
Jack Murphy3United States1919Adeptus Mechanicus1.18%23%5.82.458%62969
Bjorn Eriksson3Sweden1895Chaos Knights0.87%19%5.72.557%62278
Mathieu Clerc3Belgium1794Leagues of Votann0.09%7%4.93.254%592131
Josh Crowe3Canada1797Imperial Knights0.14%7%4.93.254%592129
Wyatt Harris3United States1759Genestealer Cults0.06%5%4.73.453%582151
Dustin Hammond3United States1738Imperial Knights0.04%4%4.53.652%577165
Collin Cochran3United States1744Death Guard0.05%4%4.53.552%578160
Thomas Harkestad3Norway1739Tyranids0.04%4%4.53.552%577163
Hans Lieber3United States1741Death Guard0.07%4%4.53.652%576165
Walter Langendorf3United States1727Necrons0.05%4%4.43.752%574172
Kody Drake3United States1735Genestealer Cults0.02%4%4.53.652%575168
Robin Philippot3France1718Adepta Sororitas0.00%3%4.33.751%570180
Mike Muzeni3United States1705Thousand Sons0.01%3%4.23.851%566189
Brian Crothers3Canada1698Emperor's Children0.02%2%4.23.951%566191
Jordan Galaugher3Canada1687World Eaters0.02%2%4.13.950%562198
Mathew Tweedel3United States1685Blood Angels0.02%2%4.14.050%562200
Will Paul3Canada1663Orks0.00%1%3.94.149%556215
Sebastien Potvin3Canada1642Chaos Knights0.00%1%3.74.348%551230
Adrien Marczak3France1576Chaos Space Marines0.00%1%3.24.847%533273
Angel C4KILLER3Andorra1566Drukhari0.00%0%3.14.946%531277
Thom Dues3Mexico1541Death Guard0.00%0%2.95.146%524293
Fabiano Mariani3Italy1525Astra Militarum0.00%0%2.85.245%521302
Sepian Wang3China1505Imperial Knights0.00%0%2.75.345%516313
Santi Lema3Bolivia1500Blood Angels0.00%0%2.65.444%514315
Stephen Walker3England1512Death Guard0.00%0%2.75.345%519308
Daniel Sansone3United States1524Death Guard0.00%0%2.85.245%520304
Justin Moore4United States1962Adeptus Mechanicus1.98%27%6.12.259%64155
Ben Jurek4United States1943Chaos Knights1.46%24%6.02.358%63661
Nick Jagiello4Canada1864Astra Militarum0.40%11%5.42.756%61094
Nicholas Willingale4England1838Adeptus Mechanicus0.26%9%5.32.955%604106
Joel Larsson4Sweden1784Dark Angels0.11%5%4.93.253%589135
Matthew Geyer4United States1788Adeptus Mechanicus0.07%5%4.93.253%591132
Noah Pope4United States1773Space Marines0.06%5%4.83.353%587140
Steven Salazar4United States1736T'au Empire0.02%3%4.53.552%577164
Aidan Barkley4United States1713Space Marines0.01%2%4.43.751%571177
Guillaume Dusaussois4Belgium1704Space Marines0.01%2%4.33.851%569183
Rasmus Valand Fredriksen4Norway1700Necrons0.03%2%4.33.851%568185
Kevin Hamilton4Canada1680Black Templars0.03%1%4.14.050%562201
Basile Mauvieux4France1629Death Guard0.00%1%3.74.348%550233
jun hong4China1592Adepta Sororitas0.00%1%3.44.647%541256
Kevin Grubbs4United States1616Adeptus Custodes0.00%1%3.64.448%546242
Travis Morton4United States1589Grey Knights0.00%0%3.44.647%541255
James Cummings4Australia1595Leagues of Votann0.00%0%3.54.547%541253
Axel Chazman4Mexico1574Aeldari0.00%0%3.34.747%536267
Ari C4United States1544Drukhari0.00%0%3.14.946%529285
Jean-Loup GENIN4France1545Adepta Sororitas0.00%0%3.14.946%529284
William Lewis4United States1528Adeptus Custodes0.00%0%3.05.045%526293
Jakeb Quangvan4Canada1503Grey Knights0.00%0%2.75.345%517311
Lucas Gil4Brazil1508Adeptus Custodes0.00%0%2.85.245%521304
Jean-Philippe Lafond4Canada1479Aeldari0.00%0%2.55.444%512321
Remi Surprenant4Canada1500Aeldari0.00%0%2.75.344%516311
Giuseppe Pugliese4Italy1501Chaos Space Marines0.00%0%2.75.344%517310
Evan Stump5United States1911Space Marines1.06%24%5.92.457%63069
Shaun Reynolds5United States1830Adeptus Mechanicus0.34%12%5.32.955%605106
Jakub Jansa5Czech Republic1822World Eaters0.30%12%5.23.055%603112
Collin Watts5United States1801Chaos Knights0.11%9%5.03.154%597121
Giorgio castelli5Italy1767Deathwatch0.05%6%4.83.353%587142
Paulie Wallis5England1734Drukhari0.05%5%4.53.552%579162
Guillaume Brisseau5France1735Aeldari0.09%5%4.53.552%578162
Remi Pommier5France1728Death Guard0.02%4%4.53.651%575168
T Chambliss5United States1716Adepta Sororitas0.03%4%4.43.751%573175
Alex Macdougall5Canada1710Genestealer Cults0.05%3%4.33.751%570181
Marshall Peterson5United States1713Astra Militarum0.01%3%4.43.751%572177
Bryce Bennett5United States1707Aeldari0.02%3%4.33.851%570182
Maxime Rampen5Canada1670Chaos Space Marines0.00%2%4.04.050%560206
Magnus Bjerke5Sweden1645Chaos Knights0.00%1%3.84.249%554223
Matthew Secter5Canada1650T'au Empire0.01%1%3.84.249%554222
Lasse Eikenes5Norway1630Chaos Knights0.00%1%3.74.348%551230
Vazto Tovar5Mexico1624T'au Empire0.00%1%3.64.448%547236
Robby Curneal5United States1589Adepta Sororitas0.00%1%3.44.647%539258
Hayden jones5Japan1563Aeldari0.00%0%3.24.846%532276
Simon L5Brazil1552Space Marines0.00%0%3.14.946%530283
Kirk Powell5United States1529Tyranids0.00%0%2.95.145%524295
Joe Garcia5United States1496Imperial Knights0.00%0%2.65.344%515314
Gustavo Marod5Mexico1549Blood Angels0.00%0%3.05.046%528286
Ben Williamson5Australia1518World Eaters0.00%0%2.85.245%520303
Christopher Kruk5Canada1501Aeldari0.00%0%2.75.344%516312
Aaron Rider5United States1509Black Templars0.00%0%2.75.245%518308
Wesley St. Hines6United States2101Astra Militarum8.85%37%6.91.562%67029
Derek Apsche6United States2030Death Guard3.54%22%6.41.960%64943
John Lennon6United States2017Emperor's Children3.01%21%6.42.060%64746
Fritz Peters6Germany1841Necrons0.21%4%5.22.955%599111
Donovan Sailo6United States1832Grey Knights0.13%4%5.13.055%596115
Jeff Jew6United States1813Black Templars0.08%3%5.03.154%591124
Jonathan Arkin6Norway1809Dark Angels0.07%3%4.93.154%590128
Garrett Stacy6United States1744Adeptus Mechanicus0.03%1%4.53.652%574165
Nick Antzoulatos6United States1711Imperial Knights0.01%1%4.23.851%565188
Josh P6England1695Chaos Space Marines0.00%1%4.13.950%562198
Jacob Holmstrom6Sweden1700Tyranids0.01%1%4.13.951%563194
Garrett Befera6United States1677Emperor's Children0.00%1%4.04.050%558207
Chase Bandl6Canada1678World Eaters0.01%0%3.94.150%556211
James Webster6Australia1660Chaos Knights0.00%0%3.84.250%554219
Adam Tetour6Czech Republic1633Emperor's Children0.00%0%3.64.449%547237
Jeremie Maranda6Canada1634Space Marines0.00%0%3.64.449%545238
Matt McWatters6Canada1623Leagues of Votann0.01%0%3.54.548%543246
Chris Johnson6United States1605Astra Militarum0.00%0%3.44.648%540254
Akash Vaswani6Canada1544World Eaters0.00%0%2.95.146%523294
Diego Toribio6Mexico1570Black Templars0.00%0%3.14.947%530277
Sam Anderson6United States1578Death Guard0.00%0%3.24.847%533272
Baptiste Verwee6France1606Space Marines0.00%0%3.44.648%540254
Leo Flambeau6France1562World Eaters0.00%0%3.14.946%529282
Tom Kayser6Luxembourg1550Leagues of Votann0.00%0%3.05.046%526289
Rafael Rafiki Cabello6Chile1528Imperial Knights0.00%0%2.85.245%521301
Francesco Di Bonaventura6Italy1548Necrons0.00%0%3.05.046%525291
John Holbrook7United States1914Orks1.07%27%5.92.458%63167
tony barrett7England1859T'au Empire0.58%16%5.52.756%61491
Matthias Murr7Germany1783Blood Angels0.11%8%4.93.253%592132
Alejandro Mancuso Serrano7Spain1785Blood Angels0.06%8%4.93.253%592131
Jack Harpster7United States1777Adepta Sororitas0.06%8%4.93.353%590135
Tyler Stice7United States1762Deathwatch0.07%6%4.73.453%585145
Anthony Fung7Canada1739Adeptus Custodes0.02%4%4.53.652%577163
Thomas Cowan7Canada1714Chaos Space Marines0.02%3%4.33.751%571178
Dan Bruce7Canada1690Space Wolves0.01%3%4.13.950%565194
Alexandre Curulla7France1680Adeptus Mechanicus0.00%2%4.14.050%563200
Carlos Kaiser7United States1654Genestealer Cults0.00%2%3.94.249%555218
Seth Oster7United States1660Orks0.00%2%3.94.149%556214
David Clark7United States1662T'au Empire0.01%2%3.94.149%558211
Riley Corbitt7United States1665Imperial Knights0.00%2%3.94.149%557212
Tucker Rickey7United States1646Genestealer Cults0.00%1%3.84.249%553223
Sebastian Andersson7Sweden1637Space Wolves0.00%1%3.74.348%550233
Jason Weeks7United States1634Imperial Knights0.01%1%3.74.348%550232
Edoardo Pierini7Italy1632Thousand Sons0.00%1%3.74.348%549233
Jan Ullmann7Czech Republic1624Orks0.01%1%3.64.448%547239
Corey Trumbley7Canada1601Dark Angels0.00%1%3.44.647%541254
Nicolas Valentin7France1590Imperial Knights0.01%1%3.44.647%538260
Matt Estrada7United States1587Adeptus Mechanicus0.00%1%3.34.747%538262
Jesus Santillan7Mexico1543Astra Militarum0.00%0%3.05.046%525291
Alejandro Jorquera7Chile1561Space Marines0.00%0%3.14.946%531279
Daniel Tan7Malaysia1500Adeptus Custodes0.00%0%2.65.344%515314
Timothy Smith7Australia1481Deathwatch0.00%0%2.55.544%509325
Folger Pyles8United States2075Aeldari9.24%53%7.01.662%67726
Junior Aflleje8United States1876Leagues of Votann0.43%13%5.62.756%61686
John Winter Russell8Canada1805Astra Militarum0.11%6%5.03.154%595124
David Purcell8United States1801Astra Militarum0.05%5%5.03.154%595126
David T.8United States1778World Eaters0.10%5%4.83.353%588138
Raven8Spain1731Emperor's Children0.01%3%4.53.652%577166
Jakub Leitner8Czech Republic1720Genestealer Cults0.02%2%4.43.751%573174
Joseph Walsh8Mexico1714Necrons0.00%2%4.33.751%571177
Taylor Davis8United States1684World Eaters0.00%2%4.13.950%564195
Thomas Davies8United States1680Genestealer Cults0.00%1%4.13.950%562199
Mathieu Morin8France1671Aeldari0.00%1%4.04.050%560206
Phil Cass8Canada1656Imperial Knights0.00%1%3.94.149%556217
Ludovico Mazza8Italy1634Space Marines0.01%1%3.74.349%551230
Tommy Rust8United States1629Death Guard0.00%1%3.74.348%549233
Aurelien Petit8France1626Leagues of Votann0.02%1%3.74.448%548236
Jens Bothur8Germany1610Tyranids0.00%1%3.54.548%544247
Keaton Marschman8United States1602Orks0.00%1%3.54.547%542251
Shane Watts8United States1608Leagues of Votann0.00%0%3.54.548%544247
Bruno Fajardo8Chile1599Blood Angels0.00%0%3.54.547%542252
garry Sacco8Canada1607Black Templars0.00%0%3.54.548%543249
Mattias Lindvall-Ostling8Sweden1609Emperor's Children0.00%0%3.54.548%544247
Levi Pawliw8Canada1556Imperial Knights0.00%0%3.14.946%530280
Zach Bolger8United States1550Adepta Sororitas0.00%0%3.04.946%528285
Jamie East8England1535Death Guard0.00%0%2.95.145%525294
Husain A8Malaysia1500Astra Militarum0.00%0%2.75.345%516310
Todd Spencer8Australia1500Dark Angels0.00%0%2.65.345%516313
Dan Sammons9United States2040Adeptus Mechanicus6.14%47%6.71.761%66832
Frank Viruet9United States1835Space Marines0.21%9%5.32.955%607102
Jordan Nach9United States1810T'au Empire0.12%8%5.13.054%599116
Julien Breney9France1803Thousand Sons0.11%7%5.13.054%598118
Christian Schachmann9Germany1810Chaos Knights0.15%7%5.13.054%601115
Brett Perkins9United States1768Chaos Daemons0.05%5%4.83.353%589138
Martin Hultgren9Sweden1729Thousand Sons0.00%3%4.53.651%577165
Majd Kuteifan9France1719Adepta Sororitas0.02%3%4.53.651%576168
Nathan Blankenship9United States1695Orks0.03%2%4.33.850%568186
Matthew Wood9United States1679Adeptus Custodes0.01%2%4.23.950%565195
Charles Craig9United States1649World Eaters0.01%1%3.94.149%557213
Chris Jung9United States1632Leagues of Votann0.00%1%3.84.248%553226
Jorge Latorre9Colombia1604Drukhari0.00%1%3.64.447%546245
Carlos Moreno9Mexico1579Aeldari0.00%1%3.44.647%538261
Marc Pesant9Canada1583World Eaters0.00%0%3.44.647%538260
Billy Guest9England1583Orks0.00%0%3.44.647%540259
Pavel Sohaj9Czech Republic1577Space Marines0.00%0%3.44.747%538263
Ryan Pearce9Canada1564Necrons0.00%0%3.24.846%533274
Hayden Walduck9Australia1540T'au Empire0.00%0%3.14.946%528285
Marco Pinamonti9Italy1554Space Marines0.00%0%3.24.846%533276
Philip Hall9United States1525Space Wolves0.01%0%2.95.145%525294
Victor Manuel Gil Rocha9Spain1512Aeldari0.00%0%2.95.145%523300
Yew Soon Christopher Koh9Malaysia1500Astra Militarum0.00%0%2.85.245%519306
James Williford9United States1481Chaos Space Marines0.00%0%2.65.444%515317
TJ Raymore9Canada1500Death Guard0.00%0%2.75.245%517308
Jason Ho9Canada1513Adeptus Mechanicus0.00%0%2.85.245%520303
Andy Quas-Cohen10England2011Necrons3.30%28%6.32.060%64746
Zach Point10United States1947Aeldari1.19%17%5.92.358%62866
Jose C. Herranz10Spain1889Imperial Knights0.57%11%5.52.657%61288
Frasier Parry10Canada1876World Eaters0.43%9%5.42.856%60796
Artur Guttler10Germany1860Adeptus Mechanicus0.20%7%5.32.856%603103
Loukas Benard10France1844Genestealer Cults0.17%6%5.13.055%598112
Malaki Fowler10United States1802Thousand Sons0.07%4%4.93.254%589132
Joshua Campbell10United States1786Adeptus Mechanicus0.03%3%4.73.353%584143
Peter Elias10United States1784Aeldari0.04%3%4.83.353%584143
Jensen Goh10Vietnam1775Orks0.03%3%4.73.453%582149
Scotty Bee10Canada1774Necrons0.11%3%4.63.453%580153
Russell Tassin10United States1733Chaos Daemons0.02%2%4.43.752%571174
Alexander Jessen10Denmark1723Thousand Sons0.01%1%4.33.751%568181
Sean Olson10United States1705Space Marines0.02%1%4.23.951%564192
Simon RIVRY-COAT10France1639Drukhari0.00%0%3.74.349%548235
Trent Mazer10United States1649T'au Empire0.00%0%3.74.349%550228
Christopher Drazan10United States1615Leagues of Votann0.00%0%3.54.548%542250
Tyler Devries10United States1625Adeptus Mechanicus0.00%0%3.54.548%544244
Ken Knox10United States1591Adeptus Mechanicus0.00%0%3.34.747%535267
Isaac Gutierrez10Mexico1573Chaos Daemons0.01%0%3.14.947%530278
Kevin Fontana10Australia1580Space Marines0.00%0%3.24.847%533274
Tycho Baillard10Switzerland1561Aeldari0.00%0%3.05.046%528285
Luigi Vassallo10Italy1570Drukhari0.00%0%3.14.947%531279
Alex Beaudoin10Canada1484Chaos Knights0.00%0%2.45.544%508324
Troy Freiburger10Canada1500Adeptus Mechanicus0.00%0%2.65.445%511318
Juan Alzate10Colombia1488Drukhari0.00%0%2.55.544%510324
Jeffrey Kolodner11United States2030Adepta Sororitas4.52%30%6.51.960%65441
Mark Hertel11United States2011Space Marines3.22%26%6.42.060%64845
Ben Jones11England1982Aeldari2.03%20%6.22.159%64054
Kass Kielly-Burke11Canada1840Adepta Sororitas0.18%5%5.13.055%598113
Hunter Nichols11United States1802Space Wolves0.13%4%4.93.254%590131
Zachary Morales11United States1762Space Marines0.02%2%4.63.453%581152
Roger Boira11Spain1757T'au Empire0.04%2%4.63.452%579155
James Lovett11United States1758World Eaters0.02%2%4.63.452%580154
Bastian Kry11Germany1760Space Marines0.03%2%4.73.452%581151
Evan Tomchin11United States1742World Eaters0.00%2%4.53.652%575164
Pierre Besseyre11France1719Space Marines0.02%1%4.33.751%569180
Richard Grint11Denmark1699Adeptus Mechanicus0.01%1%4.23.951%565193
Eric Tadt11United States1656Genestealer Cults0.00%1%3.84.249%554219
Jolan ALLIX11France1648Astra Militarum0.00%0%3.84.249%553223
Justin Hackert11United States1612Grey Knights0.00%0%3.54.548%544247
Josh Stapleton11Canada1647Adepta Sororitas0.00%0%3.74.349%551227
Adam Lev11Colombia1633Death Guard0.00%0%3.64.448%547237
Chris Adams11United States1603Death Guard0.01%0%3.44.647%540255
Brieuc Chauvin11Switzerland1555Chaos Daemons0.00%0%3.14.946%529284
Marc Fritzsch11Australia1543Adeptus Mechanicus0.00%0%2.95.046%525291
Xabi Sevi11Vietnam1561Space Wolves0.00%0%3.14.946%531279
Curtis Strong11Canada1562Tyranids0.00%0%3.14.946%530280
Matthew Rogers11United States1515Space Marines0.00%0%2.75.245%519306
John Marzo11Canada1494Space Marines0.00%0%2.65.445%512317
Fernando Canut11Mexico1531World Eaters0.00%0%2.95.146%522298
Raffaele Ciofani Tucci11Italy1497Dark Angels0.00%0%2.65.445%514315
Conan Jennings12United States2048Space Marines5.85%38%6.61.862%65936
Terroxer El Rojo12Spain1897Thousand Sons0.63%11%5.52.657%61387
Niklas Fritschen12Germany1882Chaos Daemons0.59%10%5.42.756%61093
Travis King12United States1837Adeptus Mechanicus0.27%6%5.13.055%596116
Charles Primard12France1821World Eaters0.16%5%4.93.154%591127
Matthew Doughman12United States1807Dark Angels0.12%4%4.93.254%588133
Jake Chalmers12Canada1789Chaos Daemons0.09%3%4.73.454%581147
Scott Ketcham12United States1773Adepta Sororitas0.04%3%4.63.453%580153
Oscar Ruiz12United States1769Death Guard0.04%3%4.63.553%579156
Sascha Alexander Edelkraut12United States1772Chaos Space Marines0.05%3%4.63.553%577157
Kennith! Onyeabor12Nigeria1768Tyranids0.04%2%4.63.553%577158
Antonio Biello12Mexico1737Orks0.03%2%4.33.752%569178
Yohann Teston12France1722Death Guard0.04%1%4.23.851%566186
Jouni Haavisto12Finland1716Orks0.00%1%4.23.951%564191
Jonas Beardsley12United States1713Adeptus Mechanicus0.01%1%4.13.951%563194
David Coren12Canada1718World Eaters0.02%1%4.13.951%563192
Josh E.12United States1716World Eaters0.03%1%4.23.951%564190
Matt Schuchman12United States1713Aeldari0.02%1%4.13.951%564192
Carson Okamoto12United States1692Adepta Sororitas0.02%1%4.04.050%559205
Joshua Brodie12Australia1693Space Marines0.00%1%3.94.150%557209
Lucas Wilson12United States1676Chaos Daemons0.00%1%3.84.250%554217
Luke Handley12Switzerland1557Chaos Space Marines0.00%0%2.95.146%524293
Carlos Lopez12Colombia1553Death Guard0.00%0%2.95.146%522296
Eloi Desjardins12Canada1536Emperor's Children0.00%0%2.75.246%517305
Yong Qiang Ong12Singapore1551Black Templars0.00%0%2.85.146%522297
Sean Clancy12Canada1523Necrons0.00%0%2.65.345%513312
Innes Wilson13Scotland2075Chaos Space Marines8.64%52%6.91.662%67526
Leif Westermann13Germany1844Aeldari0.24%8%5.32.855%606101
Z Martin13United States1829Aeldari0.18%7%5.22.955%603109
Nicholas Fromme13United States1828Aeldari0.15%7%5.22.955%601111
Falco La_Orden13Spain1799Emperor's Children0.07%5%5.03.154%595124
Eero Saukkonen13Finland1784Adeptus Mechanicus0.08%4%4.93.253%590134
Amador Perez13Mexico1772Space Marines0.04%4%4.83.353%586142
Dick McTrickle13United States1762Imperial Knights0.04%4%4.73.453%585146
Brandon Cating13United States1668Adepta Sororitas0.00%1%4.04.050%560205
Kasra Houshidar13Canada1668Space Marines0.01%1%4.04.050%559208
Ronan Vidal13France1657World Eaters0.00%1%3.94.149%558212
Nicholas Kudriavetz13United States1639Space Marines0.00%1%3.84.249%552225
Erik Aliff13United States1642Grey Knights0.01%1%3.84.249%553224
Austin Johnson13United States1624T'au Empire0.00%1%3.74.448%548237
Benjamin Hauser13Canada1613Imperial Knights0.00%1%3.64.448%545244
Anthony Richardson13Canada1619Drukhari0.01%0%3.64.448%547239
Geoff Legg13Philippines1600Blood Angels0.00%0%3.54.547%543250
Michael Tobin13Canada1580World Eaters0.00%0%3.34.747%537265
Anna Hakken13United States1532Leagues of Votann0.00%0%3.05.045%526292
Martin Menoud13Switzerland1568Blood Angels0.00%0%3.24.846%535272
Wesley Chan13Singapore1549Dark Angels0.00%0%3.14.946%529284
Joseph Holtz13United States1542Imperial Knights0.00%0%3.05.046%528287
Frankie Giampapa13United States1484Necrons0.00%0%2.65.444%513320
Ilan Corteggiani13Mexico1512Aeldari0.00%0%2.85.245%519305
Jordan Mattheus13United States1515Tyranids0.00%0%2.85.245%521302
James Lucey13Australia1500World Eaters0.00%0%2.75.344%517310
Samuel Pope14United States2014Tyranids3.73%33%6.41.960%64444
Kit Smith Hanna14United States1928Space Marines1.05%17%5.82.457%61972
Borja FM14Spain1872Blood Angels0.32%10%5.42.756%60495
Tim Schneider14Germany1866Leagues of Votann0.25%10%5.32.756%60199
Richard Siegler14United States1830Adeptus Mechanicus0.18%7%5.12.954%591118
Timothy Grant14United States1803Necrons0.04%6%4.93.154%584131
Anthony Dalla Lana14Canada1749Chaos Space Marines0.01%2%4.43.452%565168
Matt Lorah14United States1734Tyranids0.03%2%4.43.651%565174
Chris martens14United States1731Aeldari0.00%2%4.43.651%564174
Liam Bath14Canada1725Necrons0.01%2%4.33.651%558184
Simon Baines14Canada1689Aeldari0.01%1%4.03.850%549207
Niklas Ojalainen14Finland1681Orks0.01%1%4.03.950%550210
Alex Ing14United States1681Necrons0.00%1%4.03.950%550208
Stefan Meertens14The Netherlands1672Space Wolves0.01%1%3.94.049%547215
Daniel Rivera14Mexico1662Adeptus Mechanicus0.00%1%3.84.049%544221
Francis Fernandez14Philippines1651Aeldari0.00%1%3.74.149%541230
Kyle Smith14Canada1627Imperial Knights0.00%0%3.54.348%532246
Atal Walia14Canada1584Space Marines0.01%0%3.24.547%520271
Nathan Riggeal14United States1570Chaos Knights0.00%0%3.14.746%519280
Damon Jenkins14United States1538Aeldari0.00%0%2.94.945%509298
Jack Tinning14Australia1523Adeptus Mechanicus0.00%0%2.75.045%504309
Robin Lechevalier14France1500Chaos Space Marines0.00%0%2.65.144%500318
Jake Walker14Thailand1507World Eaters0.00%0%2.65.144%501316
Adolfo Villarreal14Mexico1511Aeldari0.00%0%2.65.145%501314
Dejan Filipovic14Slovenia1521Necrons0.00%0%2.75.045%505309
Michael Mann15United States1937Space Wolves1.16%23%5.92.358%62865
Jeremy Atkinson15Canada1869Adeptus Mechanicus0.40%14%5.42.756%61092
Gustavo Jose Branco Varandas de Sousa15Portugal1854Astra Militarum0.27%11%5.32.855%605100
Kyle McCord15United States1844Dark Angels0.31%10%5.32.955%603104
David Hall15United States1820Adeptus Mechanicus0.21%8%5.13.054%597117
Andrew Vawter15United States1813Space Marines0.13%8%5.03.154%594122
Idavoll Heimdall15Canada1761Necrons0.04%5%4.73.453%581150
Ben Cherwien15United States1746Black Templars0.06%4%4.63.552%578159
Stephen Mitchell15United States1743Chaos Space Marines0.02%4%4.53.552%576161
rOBIN rOBERTS15United States1738Genestealer Cults0.03%3%4.53.652%575166
Dan Morris15Canada1724Aeldari0.04%3%4.43.751%572174
Shadowblade 40k15Spain1711Aeldari0.02%2%4.33.751%570179
Matt Aaron15United States1707Death Guard0.02%2%4.33.751%569183
Jokull Johannsson15Iceland1694Aeldari0.01%2%4.23.950%564193
Nicolas Robert15France1594Necrons0.00%1%3.44.647%540256
Pranas Kuprys15Australia1560Death Guard0.00%0%3.24.846%532277
Heikki Puska15Finland1554World Eaters0.00%0%3.14.946%532280
David LeComte15United States1540Adeptus Custodes0.00%0%3.05.046%527289
eduardo villarreal15Mexico1552Orks0.00%0%3.14.946%529284
Byungwook Kim15Republic of Korea1500Imperial Knights0.00%0%2.75.344%518310
Andres Techera15Uruguay1490Space Marines0.00%0%2.65.344%516316
Chanakarn Soontorndecha15Thailand1500Black Templars0.00%0%2.75.344%517311
Antonio Morales15Mexico1457Blood Angels0.00%0%2.45.643%508331
Jason Crepin15Canada1500T'au Empire0.00%0%1.56.341%477374
Brian Daugherty16United States1986World Eaters2.47%27%6.22.159%64050
Drew Salzborn16United States1936Leagues of Votann0.99%19%5.92.358%62666
TJ Lanigan16United States1914Chaos Daemons0.85%16%5.72.557%62075
Tyler Principio16United States1879Black Templars0.45%11%5.52.756%61289
Steve Trimble16United States1853Drukhari0.18%8%5.32.855%603102
Alvaro Perez16Spain1809Drukhari0.10%6%5.03.154%592124
Adam Green16Canada1801Black Templars0.10%4%4.93.254%588132
Charles Gould16Ireland1737Space Marines0.00%2%4.43.652%573168
Chris Cho16United Kingdom1698Chaos Knights0.02%1%4.13.951%564193
Robert Jones16United States1671Chaos Space Marines0.00%1%4.04.150%558210
Mate Csaszar16Hungary1665Adeptus Mechanicus0.00%1%3.94.149%556214
Morgan Timpy16United States1630T'au Empire0.00%1%3.64.448%547236
Juuso Sipilainen16Finland1637Blood Angels0.00%1%3.74.349%549232
Alexandre Dombrowski16Canada1603Death Guard0.00%0%3.44.648%540255
Henry Lam16Venezuela1605Adeptus Custodes0.00%0%3.44.648%541252
Austin Howald16United States1606Aeldari0.00%0%3.54.548%542251
Mark Drobena16United States1578Emperor's Children0.00%0%3.24.847%534270
Antoine Boivin16Canada1614Grey Knights0.00%0%3.54.548%542249
David Testa16France1591Genestealer Cults0.00%0%3.34.747%537263
Sumaythang Srianonantakij16Thailand1564Imperial Knights0.00%0%3.14.946%531278
Daniel Montoya16Mexico1540Death Guard0.00%0%2.95.146%525293
Grant Nichols16United States1550Chaos Daemons0.00%0%3.05.046%527287
Jeongmok Kang16Republic of Korea1500Space Marines0.00%0%2.65.345%516313
Micheal Godon16Canada1539Imperial Knights0.00%0%2.95.046%525292

Closing Thoughts

That wraps up our look at this year’s field. Looking back on last year’s article, we’re pretty happy with how things turned out, with #2 elo player Folger Pyles eventually winning the event over John Lennon. It’ll be interesting to see how things shake out this year, and how close the results hew to predictions. Of course, there are always confounding factors – army selection and matchup are big ones – and that may be something we take a look at after the event.

If you’re reading this and attending the event, good luck! And if you’re not, be sure to follow along the next few days as we post updates here on Goonhammer and potentially show up on streams of the event.

Have any questions or feedback? Drop us a note in the comments below or email us at contact@goonhammer.com. Want articles like this linked in your inbox every Monday morning? Sign up for our newsletter. And don’t forget that you can support us on Patreon for backer rewards like early video content, Administratum access, an ad-free experience on our website and more. Oh, and don’t forget to check out the work we’re doing at Stat Check over on our website.

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